Geographic Data
Mostafa Mohamadi dehcheshme; Sohrab Ghaedi; Fereshteh shanbehpoor
Abstract
Extended AbstractIntroductionClimate change is the greatest threat to humanity, because it is the main factor in increasing the frequency and severity of atmospheric events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, etc. that are experienced today. Climate change can cause a wide range of environmental problems, ...
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Extended AbstractIntroductionClimate change is the greatest threat to humanity, because it is the main factor in increasing the frequency and severity of atmospheric events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, etc. that are experienced today. Climate change can cause a wide range of environmental problems, including severe drought and water scarcity, crop loss, and increased socioeconomic consequences. One way to identify climate change is to evaluate climate and temperature indicators. Based on statistical tests and time series of occurrence of these parameters in the long run, the status of change and its trend can be identified. Given the importance of the impact of climate change on all sectors, the study of the consequences of these changes requires the study of all sectors and effective factors with a systemic approach. One of the concerns of human society is the changes that have caused climate change due to global warming. In this regard, given the importance of climate change on all sectors, the study of the consequences of these changes requires the study of all sectors and factors with a systemic approach. Considering the importance of climate change and its effects, this study seeks to answer the following questions by considering important climatic parameters and vulnerable urban dimensions (economic, social, political, environmental):1- The trend of climate change changes (Temperature and rainfall, humidity, wind speed) what is it like in Ahvaz?2- What is the causal relationship between the causes of climate change and vulnerable sectors in the city of Ahvaz? 3- What are the effects and consequences of climate change on the city of Ahvaz?Materials & MethodsThe research methodology is based on statistical tests and qualitative modeling with a systemic approach. The present study analyzes the trend of changes in climatic parameters including temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed for a period of 30 years (1991-2020) in Ahvaz using the statistical Mann-Kendall Test was examined. Then, using the science of system dynamics, the causal relationships between variables and structural modeling of the consequences of climate change in Vensim software are investigated. The main stage of using the system dynamics approach is to try to understand and identify the feedback loops of the system under study, for which purpose diagrams of causal loops are drawn. In this study, inputs are the factors that shape climate change are factors that affect the city system. System outputs will be the consequences of climate change.Results & DiscussionBased on the results of the analysis of the trend of climatic parameters, the city of Ahvaz in the study period has faced an increase in temperature, increase in relative humidity, decrease in wind speed, and decrease in rainfall. During the 30-year trend (1991-2020), the average rainfall has been (226) mm, each year (1.32) mm, has decreased and followed a downward trend. The average temperature has been (25.38) degrees Celsius, it has increased every year (by 0.051) degrees, which shows an increasing trend over 30 years. Based on the results, the average relative humidity was (41.1), which increased every year (0.007). Also, according to the results, the average wind speed is (2.65 m/s) and has decreased by about (0.018) every year. Therefore, the wind speed shows a decreasing trend over 30 years. Given that climate change refers to the spatial-temporal changes in the long-term average of climatic elements, the results of this study clearly showed that climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed) in the study area have undergone fundamental changes. The consequences of climate change on all economic, social, political, and environmental aspects were evaluated. The results of qualitative modeling and causal relationship showed that climate change in Ahwaz has a direct impact on different sectors of water resources, agricultural production, and energy consumption. Variables of (reduction of water reserves upstream, extreme heat waves) are the most important leverage points of the model. Different outcomes have complex interactions with each other in such a way that they affect different economic, social, environmental, and political dimensions and ultimately intensify each other's effects on reducing the quality of life and increasing climate migration.ConclusionAs a result, climate change has consequences such as increasing unemployment, reducing the quality of life, reducing urban resilience, and ultimately increasing climate migration in the city of Ahvaz, and the urban environment is not equipped to adapt to climate change.
Mostafa Mohamadi dehcheshme; Fereshteh Shanbehpour
Abstract
Extended Abstract Introduction 21st century is the era of cities’vulnerability, since as urban life becomes more complex, ...
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Extended Abstract Introduction 21st century is the era of cities’vulnerability, since as urban life becomes more complex, cities face natural hazards and technological crises on the one hand and social-security crises on the other.Urban safety and security have long been a focus of urban planning, and planners have always been concerned about this important issue in the process of building and designing urban areas.Improving the security of critical infrastructures can play a key role in provision of better services and reduction of vulnerabilities, especially in times of crisis,Moreover, reducing the vulnerability of urban land uses by new crisis management approaches such as passive defense, which is one of the most important goals of urban managers can play a role in creation of a safe environment in cities and mitigationof damages. Materials & Methods The present research is theoretical-practical and descriptive-analytic in nature. For data analysis, the final weights of indices were determined using FAHP-GIS and then the neighborhood of each layer was identifiedusing the Distance tool. Afterwards, maps of the interval zoneswere overlapped usingFuzzy Overlay(gamma-0.9)of the Spatial Analyst Tools. Results & Discussion The findings of the present study on spatial analysis of critical infrastructure have indicated that: (A)The 2nd district of Yasujfaces the highest risk level, while the 3rd district faces the lowest level of risks. High concentration of critical infrastructures in the 2nd district and improper distribution of these infrastructures and organizations providing emergency servicesare the most important causes of risks in the city of Yasuj. B) None of the studied critical infrastructures and organizations providing emergency services in Yasuj are located in the very low risk zone. C) Only about 31% of the studied critical land uses are located in the low Risk zone. D) Spatial analysis of critical infrastructures in Yasuj has shown the lack of a logical balance in spatial distribution of these infrastructures. Therefore, ifa possible emergency situation damages a part of the city (the 2nd district as considered in the present study), the activities of many sectors will be challengeddue to the synergy and interoperability of the infrastructure. Conclusion The results show that 11 land uses or 45.83% of infrastructures with percent value of 0.19-0.1 are located in the high risk zone; 6 land uses or 25% of infrastructures with percent value of 0.20-0.39 are located in the relatively dangerous zone; 5 land uses or 20.83% of infrastructures with percent value of 0.40-0.59 are located in the medium risk zone, and finally, 2 land uses or 8.33% of the infrastructures with percent value of 0.60-0.79 are located in the low risk zone. None of the land uses in Yasuj are located inthe very low risk zone.
mostafa mohamadi dehcheshme; Hadi Alizadeh
Abstract
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Today, given the increasing trend of urbanization and the progressive growth of city and citizens’ risk-taking in relation to accidents and hazards, the necessity of addressing the security issue as one of the key determinants of a good city is felt more than ever, ...
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Extended Abstract
Introduction
Today, given the increasing trend of urbanization and the progressive growth of city and citizens’ risk-taking in relation to accidents and hazards, the necessity of addressing the security issue as one of the key determinants of a good city is felt more than ever, and this challenge has led theorists to find a definition of a healthy, safe and sustainable city. In its report on strengthening the urban safety and security in 2007, the United Nations has made human security and safety equivalent to supporting the vital needs of human, namely, freedom from undesirable conditions of life and bringing people closer to their aspirations and ambitions. This Interpretation of Human Security and Safety in the Copenhagen Declaration of 2005 was completed with the emphasis on efforts to eliminate hunger and malnutrition, creating food security, development and livelihoods, health services including safe drinking water, proper sanitation and shelter, and participation in social and cultural life. However, attempts to establish urban security on a global scale have generally confronted the offender rather than focusing on crime and the causes of security threats in urban areas. It can be argued that there is a certain amount of violence in every given city, but violence at the city level has not been randomly distributed and for a better attitude towards security topic, the factors creating insecurity in urban spaces should be sought and identified. Considering the mentioned issues and the necessity to pay attention to the security in urban spaces, in the present study, the city of Urmia has been evaluated as the basis of the study. Over the last few decades, the city as the capital of the province of West Azerbaijan, with the acceptance of various Kurdish ethnicities, Assyrian and Armenian Christians to live in the city and increasing the marginalization in the north, northwestern, and southern regions of the city, has become an appropriate context for creating insecure and anomalous spaces due to increasing ethnic and ideological prejudices among Azeri and other ethnic groups, and conflicts and increasing crime rates in the city. Ethnic bias, the lack of balanced distribution of resources and facilities at the city level, ideological bias among ethnicities, the lack of sustainable physical infrastructure in marginalized areas with ethnic diversity that has led to insecurity and dissatisfaction among residents and finally, distrust of citizens and ethnicities to influential institutions and urban policymakers in collaborative discussions on ideological issues has caused insecurity and dissatisfaction among citizens and reduced security in the cities and districts mentioned, for example, the formation of insecure urban areas such as Zurabad and Muftabad indicate the anomalous and unsafe situations in these areas in Urmia. The issue of the security crisis and the increase of social anomalies and ethnicity along with the issue of marginalization have made this challenge in the city to be considered as one of the challenges of urban management in terms of security and social issues. Considering the above mentioned issue, in the process of achieving urban security in Urmia, the issue of security realization has been evaluated through studying the components of structuralist approach in urban security of Urmia in this study.
Material method
The present study was conducted with the applied targeting and “descriptive-analytical” method to analyze the security situation in urban spaces of Urmia city with regard to the structuralist approach in urban security. In order to achieve the set goals, to collect the descriptive part of the research, library studies and documents on the topic of research were used, and for the analytical part of the research, a survey method and a questionnaire were used to analyze the security of Urmia urban spaces in three fundamental, dynamic and safety dimensions from the citizens’ points of view. To analyze the research data, considering the components of the structuralist approach in the form of SPSS software, Pearson statistical correlation test was used to assess the internal relation of the security components in Urmia, T test was used to assess the priority of the security components in Urmia and the Diagnostic analysis model was used used to predict the implementation process of security in Urmia city.
Results & Discussion
The obtained results are the outcome of proper internal correlation among the components of security assessment in Urmia urban spaces. These results show that, firstly, the internal correlation of the components, in terms of the sample population, is meaningful at the level of 0.99. The final analysis of the priority of urban security components from a structural viewpoint in Urmia shows that the fundamental component with the difference between the lower mean and the two other components with the level of 0.0858 and the lower T, have a more inappropriate situation than the other two components in the city of Urmia from the citizen’s points of view. On the other hand, the final statistics of the diagnostic analysis shows that in order to predict the security in Urmia urban spaces, the safety component in continuation of confirming the preliminary results of the diagnostic analysis with a general prediction level of 0.522, has a stronger prediction for security in Urmia urban spaces. The results obtained in predicting urban security in Urmia show that, these conditions, in the present status, with the more obvious conditions, can be very important in the quantity and quality of security and its realization or non-realization in Urmia. These results show that considering the basic and fundamental factors in urban security issue in urban spaces of Urmia from the citizens’ viewpoints can be very helpful in establishing safe urban spaces in this city.
Conclusion
The structuralist approach to security, with regard to its theorizing process, addresses the assessment of the security category based on the conditions of developing countries. Its constituent parts also show root problems and challenges that can lead to insecurity in urban spaces in these countries. With this background, the components of this approach were evaluated in Urmia. In fact, in order to assess the state and accuracy of the definition of security in urban spaces of Urmia, the internal connection of selected components from the structuralist point of view was first measured. This assessment was aimed at demonstrating whether or not the components and indicators selected for the purpose of explaining the urban security category in Urumia had a coherence and intrinsic connectivity to illustrate this explanation. Secondly, the reason for assessing the priority of safety components from the point of view of structuralist approach in Urmia was to address planning to improve the level of security in urban spaces in Urmia by recognizing the importance of the components due to their weaknesses and strengths. Finally, our goal was to respond to this question that, which one of the selected components could better fulfill the security process in the urban environment of Urumia in accordance with the existing conditions.
